Saturday, March 5, 2011

The SEC Tourney gets some what clearer now...


Georgia goes down to Bama today making the scenarios a little less murky, but still lots of possibilities. 

To understand this you must first understand the tie breaker rules.  Study up here if you want to understand this: http://www.secdigitalnetwork.com/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=9pgU1XYAe7o=&tabid=712&mid=4578

Or just keep reading if you just want to know the bottom line...

We still have two games that will change the seedings.  Vandy vs. Florida tonight at 6 eastern and UK vs. UT tomorrow at 12 eastern.

Current standings:
Florida 12-3
UK 9-6
Vandy 9-6
Georgia 9-7
Tennessee 8-7
South Carolina 5-11

Florida no matter what gets the #1 seed and South Carolina will get the #6 seed so we can take them out of this equation. 

There are four possible scenarios (explanations below):
1) Vandy wins, UK wins-UK #2, Vandy #3, Georgia #4, UT #5

2) Vandy loses, UK loses-UT #2, UK #3, Vandy #4, Georgia #5

3) Vandy wins, UK loses-Vandy #2, UK #3, UT #4, Georgia #5

4) Vandy loses, UK wins-UK, #2, Vandy #3, Georgia #4, UT #5

So as you can see, if UK wins they get the #2 no matter what Vandy does today.  Also if we lose tomorrow we will be #3 no matter what Vandy does today.  So you could argue Vandy's matchup does not matter for us.  Of course you could argue it could make a difference on UT's motivation tomorrow.  If Vandy loses, UT has a shot at the bye, if they win they don't.  It will still change their seeding from a 5 to a 4 if Vandy wins and UT wins but that bye is a little more to fight over. 
So we will look at what could happen in each of these four scenarios
1) Vandy wins, UK wins

Final standings in questions would be:
UK 10-6
Vandy 10-6
Georgia 9-7
Tennessee 8-8

The first tie breaker with two teams would be head to head which is a tie.  The next is record in the East division.  UK would have a 7-3, Vandy 5-5. 

UK #2, Vandy #3, Georgia #4, UT #5

2) Vandy loses, UK loses
UK 9-7
Vandy 9-7
Georgia 9-7
Tennessee 9-7

Now we have a four way tie.  When you have a four way tie you first must look at the records against these four teams.  UK 3-3, Vandy 3-3, UT 4-2, Georgia 2-4. 

UT #2

We have Vandy and UK tied for the 3rd seed.  Head to head is a tie.  Next goes to record in the East.  In this situation UK would be 6-4, Vandy 4-6. 

UT #2, UK #3, Vandy #4, Georgia #5

3) Vandy wins, UK loses
Vandy 10-6
12UK 9-7
Georgia 9-7
Tennessee 9-7

Vandy #2 seed

UK, Georgia, and UT tied for 3rd.  Must go to best record between the three.  UK 2-2, Georgia 2-2, UT 2-2.  All tied.

Next is division record.  UK 6-4, Georgia 4-6, UT 5-5

So now we are tied with UK and UT.  Head to head is a tie. Next would be record against Florida.  UK 1-1, UT 0-2. 

UK #3 seed

Georgia and UT are now tied for 4th seed.  They split head to head.  Next is record in the East which UT gets.

Vandy #2 seed, UK #3 seed, UT #4 seed, Georgia #5 seed


4) Vandy loses, UK wins

UK 10-6
Vandy 9-7
Georgia 9-7
Tennessee 8-8

UK #2 seed

Vandy and Georgia would be tied for #3 seed.  Head to head Vandy won both times giving them the nod.

UK, #2, Vandy #3, Georgia #4, UT #5

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